Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals MLB picks and betting predictions

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The Kansas City Royals (39-55) host the Detroit Tigers (47-51) Friday for the start of their three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Tigers vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tigers lead 7-6.

RHP Wily Peralta is on the mound for the Tigers. He is 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA (33 IP, 6 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 over six starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 4 K Sunday against the Minnesota Twins.
  • Peralta's one relief appearance this year was in Detroit's 3-2 win at K.C. June 15. He put in 1 1/3 IP of work with no runs or hits allowed.
  • 2021 road stats: 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB rate.

LHP Kris Bubic is K.C.'s projected starter. He is 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA (62 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 over eight starts and eight relief outings.

  • Last start: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 4 K in K.C.'s 7-6 victory over the Cincinnati Reds July 6.
  • Bubic got a no-decision against Detroit May 23 with a stat line of 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K in K.C.'s 3-2 home win.
    • vs. Tigers on the current roster (41 PA): 6.04 FIP with a .342 batting average, .393 wOBA, .565 expected slugging percentage, 14.6 K% and 90.6 mph exit velocity.

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Tigers at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Tigers -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Royals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Tigers -1.5 (+145) | Royals +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Royals 7, Tigers 5

Money line (ML)

Detroit is red-hot with a seven-game win streak entering Friday but this is a good spot to fade the Tigers and the market since Detroit's lineup is terrible vs. left-handed pitching.

The Tigers are just 19-29 on the road this season and their lineup ranks in the bottom-third of MLB in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, BB/K rate and hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Furthermore, more than 80% of the action thus far is on Detroit's money line and oddsmakers are moving the line toward the Tigers, according to Pregame.com.

Plus, there's value in fading a team that was projected to finish last in its division and has the seventh-highest luck factor.

"LEAN" to the ROYALS (-115) for a half unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Royals +1.5 (-175) is out of my price range considering K.C. is just 10-9 ATS as a home underdog this season and the Tigers are undefeated after the All-Star break.

Over/Under (O/U)

"LEAN" to the OVER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit since we are getting the worst of the number. Tigers-Royals opened with a 10-run total before the market steamed the price up to the current number.

However, the Over cashed in each of Bubic's last six starts, K.C. is 25-19-2 O/U at home this season and Detroit is 25-20-3 O/U on the road.

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