The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Warning that is in effect for Phelps and Pulaski counties with a bleak hazardous weather outlook for the continuation of this week.
According to the National Weather Service thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon and early this this evening in Rolla and greater Phelps County, including the potential for supercell thunderstorms, hail up to two inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes will be possible with any supercell, according to the National Weather Service, and the threat for supercell tornadoes will become elevated from late this afternoon into this evening as low level wind shear increases. The thunderstorms are then expected to congeal into a squall line this evening and push east across the area from later this evening into the overnight period, according to the National Weather Service.This will include a threat for damaging winds up to 70 mph and tornadoes. Portions of the squall line, which bow out towards the northeast, will have an enhanced tornado threat. An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for today and tonight as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected, according to the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service has further issued a Flood Warning that is in effect for Phelps and Pulaski counties. The Flood warning is for the Gasconade River at Jerome impacting Phelps County, in addition to Roubidoux Creek near Waynesville affecting Pulaski County and Big Piney River below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski County. Heavy rainfall in the Missouri Ozarks over the next 48 hours will cause river levels to rise above flood stage, according to the National Weather Service. At 9:45 a.m. the Gasconade River’s water surface level at Jerome was 4.4 feet — a water surface level of 15 feet, is the measurement when the flood stage commences. The Gasconade River’s water surface level is expected to rise above flood stage by early Thursday and continue to rise to nearly 20.6 feet by Thursday evening, according to the National Weather Service. The Gasconade River's water surface level is expected to fall below flood stage by Friday afternoon. The National Weather Service noted that when the water surface level reaches 20.5 feet, flood waters begin to impact the steel residential fence line at the gage site. Additionally, the National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for Phelps and Pulaski counties that is in effect in Phelps County from 1 p.m. Tuesday through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with higher amounts locally are expected, according to the National Weather Service — the heavy rainfall may lead to flooding of creeks, streams and low water crossings. According to the National Weather Service, a nearly stationary frontal boundary in combination with various disturbances will result in several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Substantial rainfall rates are expected with some of these storms due to high amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming north into the region, which will increase the risk for flash flooding, according to the National Weather Service. A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding, which the National Weather Service notes as a dangerous situation. The Flash Flood Watch includes portions of central Missouri, east-central Missouri, south-central Missouri, and southwest Missouri, including Camden, Maries, Miller, Dent, Howell, Oregon, Shannon, Texas, Barry, Christian, Dallas, Douglas, Greene, Laclede, McDonald, Ozark, Stone, Taney, Webster and Wright counties.