I nearly drove off the road after lunch, and no, it wasn’t a three-martini meal. But I certainly thought my vision was off when I passed the local gas station where the price had just dropped to $1.99.

OK, that was with a full-service wash-and-wax, but if recent trends hold, gas alone could dip below the magic $2 barrier, quite a change from only a couple months ago, in the wake of Hurricane Ike, when prices, around the country, were nudging $4.50. Maybe that explains why so many friends are suddenly taking the sort of long driving trips they’d put off over the summer.

Some are even talking about buying full-size SUVs again. And that worries me.

True, for some folks, a big truck is an essential. But for millions of others, it’s as much a fashion statement as anything else. It was significant to watch the market shift when prices started skyrocketing – Ford’s marketing czar, Jim Farley, called it a “sea change.” So now industry analysts are left wondering whether the tide is reversing direction.

Actually, I don’t think so. Combine mounting concerns about the environment, frustration over oil imports and general social trends, and it seems very likely Americans will continue downsizing, wherever fuel prices ultimately stabilize.

Just don’t think that the current, downward trend will last, the experts insist. Sure, crude oil prices keep falling – they were off more than $6 on the day this column was written.

But OPEC is pushing member states to slash production. And when the global economy finally turns, rising demand is likely to send prices soaring again.

“Our planning is that, long term, the floor is about $3.50 a gallon,” notes Bob Carter, a senior vice president with Toyota. “With demand from developing countries, there’s only one logical place for fuel prices to go.”

OK, enjoy that trip while you can afford it. But think carefully about what you buy next. If fuel prices soar again, you just might strain your pocketbook.

Paul A. Eisenstein is an award-winning journalist who has spent more than 30 years covering the global auto industry. His work appears in a wide range of publications worldwide, and he is a frequent broadcast commentator on subjects automotive.


A SHORT REPRIEVE?

- Crude oil prices are falling even faster than they rocketed up, this year, with gas going for less than $2 a gallon in much of the country.

- The big question is whether consumers will continue to shift to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles or shift back to trucks and performance cars.

- Many automakers, such as Toyota, are betting that this is just a brief reprieve and that fuel prices will soon surge to more than $3 a gallon again.